Birmingham City – The Final Third

   

 

  by JK Cornwall (Member of birminghamcityforum.co.uk)

An anorak’s look at the games ahead.

After the Hull game and the somewhat disappointment of a draw, I thought it would be good to have a look at the fixtures and speculate our final total.

So, we have 16 games to play and we have 51 points so if you divide 51 by 30( games we’ve played) then multiply by 46 it will give the
following final totals for the top 6 teams : West Ham 87, Southampton 84, Cardiff 78, Blackpool 77, Blues 78, Reading 78

Trouble is this method presumes that the games left to play are the same difficulty for all teams.

Unfortunately the ‘OCD/Anorak’ took hold of me and I had to look into the remaining fixtures in a bit more logical and mathematical depth.

I came up with the idea that I should add up the total positions in the league that our future opposition currently hold e.g
West ham = 1, Reading = 6, Middlesbrough = 8 and so on

Blues opponents are 1+3+6+8+9+10+12+13+14+16+17+18+21+22+23+24 = 217
So we add up 1+2+3 to 24 =300 multiply by 2 = 600. Then divide 600 x 48 then multiply by 46 (games we play) total is 575.
If Blues remaining games = 217 we have already played 358 (575-217)
Therefore 51 points divide by 358 multiplied by 575

This method will give the following final totals for the top 6 teams:
West Ham (184) – 84 pts, Southampton (214) – 89 pts, Cardiff (186) – 78 pts,
Blackpool (185) – 76 pts, Blues (217) – 82 pts, Reading (196) – 77 pts

This total would give a bit more depth than 16 games would, it gives thought to the position in the league of the opposition , it also shows that West Ham have the hardest run-in and BLUES would appear to have the ‘easiest’.

The table below takes it to one more level, it takes into consideration whether the fixtures are at home or away and tries to blend a formula in with it.

The maths bit is when away add the position in the league, if at home double the
position in the league. Total positions played in a year is 862, the figures at
the bottom of the table is what the teams in the top 13 have left to play.

This method will give the following final total for the current top 12 teams:
West Ham (272) – 83 pts, Southampton (330) – 91 pts, Cardiff (288) – 80 pts,
Blackpool (253) – 74 pts, Blues (305) – 79 pts, Reading (188) – 77 pts
Hull (303) – 77 pts, Middlesbrough (271) – 73 pts, Brighton (255) – 70 pts
Burnley (283) – 70 pts, Leeds (284) – 67 pts, Leicester (295) – 64 pts

West Ham have to play against 6 of the top 8.
BLUES have to play 4 of the top 8.
Poor old Leeds have to play 7 (BLUES being the only team they don’t play)
could really do with Leeds going on a run.

West Ham have 3 to play against the bottom 8.
BLUES have to play 6 of the bottom 8.